A ceasefire has now taken effect in the Gaza war, following the Israeli government’s approval of a deal brokered by the United States with Hamas. This agreement, which involved personal engagement from U.S. President Donald Trump, emerged after negotiations in Egypt focused on the initial phase of a broader plan. This phase included a ceasefire, the exchange of hostages and prisoners, and increased humanitarian aid.
While the complete text of the agreement remains undisclosed, parts of it have been shared by Israeli media. A closer examination reveals that the document often lacks specific details, employing vague and ambiguous language, possibly by design. Even the title, “Implementation steps for President Trump’s proposal for a comprehensive end of Gaza War,” allows for varied interpretations.
This title itself suggests that the agreement marks the conclusion of the two-year conflict, setting the stage for discussions on subsequent stages of President Trump’s plan for Gaza. It implies that hostilities will not reignite, even if future negotiations falter.
Key points of contention persist, such as Israel’s demand for Hamas disarmament and the specifics of the Israeli withdrawal and future governance of Gaza. Notably, the document does not explicitly outline any guarantees against a return to fighting or the consequences of such a breach.
Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’s leader in Gaza, indicated after the deal’s finalization that he had received assurances from the US and other mediators confirming the end of the war.
Conversely, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not publicly declared an end to the conflict. Following the Israeli government’s approval, Netanyahu released a video stating that Israel would resort to force if its demands, including Hamas disarmament, were not met. “If this is achieved in the easy way, it’s all for the better. And if not, it’ll be achieved the hard way,” he declared.
The agreement also fails to specify the next steps for fully implementing Trump’s broader plan.
Crucially, the document implies that Israeli forces might return to areas they have withdrawn from if Hamas is deemed non-compliant with the agreement. However, it offers no specifics on what would constitute a violation.
Furthermore, the text does not explicitly prohibit airstrikes. Hamas officials had previously expressed concerns, drawing parallels to a ceasefire deal in Lebanon that did not prevent near-daily airstrikes by Israel against targets allegedly linked to Hezbollah. The Lebanese government maintains that Israel’s actions breach the ceasefire agreement, which was also facilitated by US mediation.
The agreement also addresses the release of hostages. Despite the stipulation for the freeing of all Israeli hostages, both living and deceased, within 72 hours of Israel’s partial withdrawal, the text implicitly acknowledges that Hamas may not be able to locate all deceased hostages within this timeframe. It allows Hamas to share information gathered about those who cannot be found.
However, the document is silent on potential consequences for any delays in freeing the 20 hostages believed to be alive.
The agreement does mention the formation of a task force composed of representatives from the US, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and other nations. This suggests a monitoring mechanism to oversee the deal and report any breaches.
US officials noted that the US is redeploying up to 200 military personnel from the Middle East to help coordinate this multinational force, though this still requires agreement from the involved parties.
This agreement represents a significant diplomatic achievement for President Trump, who aims to be recognized for ending the conflict. He utilized American influence to pressure Netanyahu, who had previously been accused of hindering earlier peace efforts, into engaging in negotiations.
Hamas faced pressure from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, as well as from its own population in Gaza, which is in dire need of assistance.
Israel initiated the current conflict in response to the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, which resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths, primarily civilians, and the abduction of 251 hostages. The Israeli military’s campaign has led to over 67,000 Palestinian casualties, predominantly civilians, including more than 18,000 children, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, and has caused a severe humanitarian crisis.
The initial phase of President Trump’s plan may have been the most manageable. Netanyahu was also experiencing mounting domestic pressure, with public opinion polls consistently indicating that a majority of Israelis favored a deal with Hamas and an end to the war. Hamas, meanwhile, reportedly concluded that holding hostages had become a liability, providing Israel with a justification to continue fighting.
However, the path forward remains uncertain. Progress hinges on continued engagement from the Trump administration, as both Israel and Hamas have incentives to delay the process. While there is current momentum, substantial obstacles lie ahead.