Attendees at the Conservative Party’s annual conference in Manchester, England, were met with a striking display: an exhibition celebrating Margaret Thatcher, the influential former prime minister from 1979 to 1990. The exhibit featured her iconic outfits, personal letters, and a compelling film detailing her unexpected ascent to party leadership in 1975.
While intended as a tribute to Mrs. Thatcher’s centennial, the exhibit inadvertently mirrored the Conservative Party’s current plight. The once-dominant party now feels weary and overshadowed, almost as if it’s relegated to the history books.
Just sixteen months after being decisively removed from power by the Labour Party, the Conservatives (or Tories) find themselves in a precarious position. They are now behind not only Labour in public opinion but also a rapidly growing anti-immigrant party, Reform UK, which currently holds a comfortable lead in the polls. A recent analysis even suggested the Conservatives could drop to the fourth-largest party in Parliament, falling behind the Liberal Democrats.
Their few points of comfort include the struggling approval ratings of Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the fact that the next general election in Britain isn’t anticipated until 2029. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservatives’ embattled leader, capitalized on Starmer’s difficulties during her conference speech on Wednesday.
“My goodness, they have made a hell of a mess,” she passionately declared about Labour, accusing them of creating a “doom loop” of stagnant growth and increased taxation. She dramatically asserted, “Never in the field of human history have so many been let down by so few.”
However, Ms. Badenoch faces a significant challenge: how to rebuild her party’s standing while simultaneously battling the threat posed by Reform UK from the right. She reiterated the familiar Conservative message of fiscal responsibility, contrasting it with Reform’s ambitious but potentially unrealistic promises and the Labour government’s perceived weak, debt-accruing economic performance.
Her most notable policy proposal was the abolition of “stamp duty,” a tax levied on Britons purchasing homes above a specific value. Additionally, she introduced a new “golden rule”: every pound saved through government spending cuts would be split, with half dedicated to reducing the national deficit and the other half allocated to tax reductions or initiatives promoting economic growth.
However, critics quickly pointed out that this economic strategy closely resembles the austerity measures implemented by former Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron during the 2010s. Analysts suggest this approach might not appeal to voters who have defected to Reform, as many of these individuals, despite their right-wing stance on immigration, often hold more left-leaning views on economic matters.
“Are there any voters left in the segment that the Conservatives are targeting?” questioned Jill Rutter, a senior fellow at U.K. in a Changing Europe. She added that for a party accustomed to governing, returning to power appears a distant prospect.
The signs of Tory struggle were undeniably present throughout Manchester. The conference itself saw noticeably low attendance, and a significant defection of twenty Conservative local councilors to Reform prompted its leader, Nigel Farage, to declare triumphantly on social media, “The Conservative Party is finished.”
The Conservatives’ difficulties are so profound that political commentators are openly discussing the potential demise of a party that has led Britain for approximately two-thirds of its history since 1834. Questions are even being raised about a possible takeover of the Conservatives by Reform UK, a notion that both Ms. Badenoch and Mr. Farage have publicly dismissed.
Immigration policy remains a major vulnerability for the Conservatives. Reform UK has skillfully leveraged the post-Brexit surge in migration against them, dubbing it a “Boriswave” in reference to former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Nigel Farage has pledged radical measures, including the deportation of up to 600,000 undocumented migrants and a requirement for even existing British residents to reapply for visas.
Though Ms. Badenoch championed her party’s commitment to deport 150,000 individuals annually through a new agency, structured similarly to the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, other senior Conservatives openly regretted the high number of arrivals during prior Tory administrations.
“It was a mistake; it should never have been allowed to happen,” stated Chris Philp, a prominent Conservative and spokesperson for immigration policy. “Under new leadership, we pledge it will never happen again.”
Ms. Badenoch’s leadership has been precarious since her election last November. However, much like Mr. Starmer, who also faced intense scrutiny at his party’s conference recently, she has managed to hold on for now. Her true test will come in the local elections this May, where another significant loss for the Tories is widely expected to trigger a leadership challenge.
Edward Phillips, a Conservative local councilor from Ipswich, interpreted the film as a suggestion that the contemporary Tory party should grant Ms. Badenoch more time to demonstrate her capabilities. However, he cautioned that historical parallels have their limitations.
“This isn’t the 1980s anymore,” Mr. Phillips emphasized. “One cannot simply transplant policies from that era into the 2020s. Kemi must craft policies relevant to today’s challenges.”