Both Israeli and Hamas representatives are gearing up for pivotal negotiations in Cairo on Monday. Mediators are cautiously optimistic that these discussions could finally lay the groundwork for ending the protracted conflict in Gaza.
However, American, Egyptian, and Qatari diplomats facilitating these discussions anticipate significant hurdles that could complicate or even derail a swift cease-fire agreement. The initial agenda prioritizes a critical humanitarian exchange: the remaining Israeli hostages held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners. This focus might defer discussions on other substantial peace obstacles to future talks.
Estimates suggest approximately 20 living hostages, along with the remains of at least 25 others, are still in Gaza. Hamas considers these captives its most valuable bargaining chip, making their release contingent on the resolution of broader aspects of the proposed deal.
President Trump’s latest comprehensive peace proposal, aimed at concluding the nearly two-year-old conflict, outlines a specific exchange: the remaining hostages would be traded for 250 Palestinians currently serving life sentences and an additional 1,700 Gazans detained by Israel during the war. Furthermore, Israel would return the bodies of 15 Gazans for every deceased Israeli hostage.
In a social media post on Saturday, Mr. Trump hinted that the release of hostages could happen promptly, provided Hamas accepts the updated conditions, especially concerning the extent of Israeli military withdrawal from its present positions in Gaza.
However, this is just one component of Mr. Trump’s extensive peace initiative. The plan also includes establishing an internationally supervised Palestinian government, forming a postwar security force comprising personnel from various nations, and the complete disarming of Hamas.
Hamas leaders have voiced strong objections to several aspects of the plan, especially the demand to surrender their weapons. Analysts predict that even the seemingly straightforward terms of the hostage-for-prisoner exchange are likely to encounter considerable challenges.
A key stipulation in Mr. Trump’s proposal requires Hamas to return all surviving captives and the bodies it holds within 72 hours of Israel’s agreement to a cease-fire.
However, both Israeli and Hamas officials concede that the Palestinian group might require additional time for this. Some living hostages are reportedly held in subterranean locations, and the recovery of other deceased individuals would necessitate extensive search and excavation efforts.
The extent of Israel’s military withdrawal from its current fortified positions within Gaza presents another contentious point in the negotiations.
Earlier negotiations saw Hamas agree to an Israeli troop withdrawal to a buffer zone near Gaza’s borders. However, Mr. Trump’s proposed lines would leave Israeli forces significantly deeper within the enclave, a condition Hamas is likely to challenge.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has now raged for two years, ever since the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023, which claimed approximately 1,200 lives. The subsequent Israeli military campaign in Gaza has resulted in a devastating toll, with local health officials reporting over 65,000 fatalities, including thousands of children.