In the Czech Republic’s recent parliamentary elections, billionaire businessman Andrej Babiš’s populist ANO party has emerged victorious. However, the preliminary results indicate that ANO has not secured an overall majority, securing just under 35% of the vote and 81 seats in the 200-seat lower house.
Babiš, who previously served as prime minister from 2017 to 2021, is expected to be invited to lead discussions on forming a new government. The election outcome, largely anticipated and aligning with pre-election polls, leaves several key questions unanswered about the country’s political future.
Babiš is poised to begin immediate coalition talks, likely with the two small, right-wing, eurosceptic parties that surpassed the 5% threshold: Motorists for Themselves, known for their anti-Green Deal stance, and Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), led by Tomio Okamura. An alliance with both parties appears necessary for ANO to form a majority government.
ANO shares common ground with the Motorists, particularly on environmental policies, aligning with Babiš’s broader “pro-sovereignty” agenda. Both parties have expressed skepticism towards the EU’s emission targets and have voiced opposition to the proposed ban on new petrol and diesel cars after 2035.
The potential partnership with the SPD, however, presents more complexities. The SPD’s electoral alliance with far-right fringe parties could lead to seat allocation challenges, and Okamura’s leadership within his caucus might not be absolute, potentially complicating coalition negotiations.
Furthermore, Babiš has explicitly ruled out holding a referendum on EU or NATO membership, a key policy point for the SPD. In the closing stages of the campaign, Babiš adopted a strong anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, criticizing the outgoing government for prioritizing aid to Ukraine over domestic needs. Despite this, Okamura’s more extreme proposals, such as the deportation of Ukrainian refugees, are unlikely to find widespread support.
Ultimately, Babiš may opt for a minority government, relying on the support of the Motorists and the SPD to govern.