The US government has officially shut down, marking the first such event in nearly seven years. With no agreement reached on a spending bill in the Senate, federal operations have come to a standstill. While the exact duration remains uncertain, history shows that shutdowns eventually conclude, driven by mounting public pressure and political pain.
This article delves into four potential ways the current shutdown could be resolved.
Democrats Quickly Break Ranks
Senate Democrats recently voted against a Republican spending bill, but the vote itself highlighted a potential vulnerability. While the majority of Democrats opposed the bill, a few, including Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, sided with Republicans. For senators like Cortez Masto, facing re-election in swing states increasingly leaning Republican, the economic impact of a shutdown on their constituents and the potential electoral toll could be significant motivators to seek an end to the impasse.
The pressure might be amplified by the fact that other Democrats in battleground states are also facing tough re-election campaigns. While the base may push for a hardline stance, the political reality for incumbents could force a compromise. Republican leadership is likely to continue leveraging these divisions, potentially forcing concessions through a series of funding votes.
Democrats Back Down
Another potential outcome is the Democratic party leadership deciding to concede, even without achieving all their objectives. As the shutdown continues, the negative impacts on government employees and the broader economy could grow, shifting public blame towards the party initiating the shutdown. Democrats might choose to cut their losses, believing they have sufficiently highlighted the issues, such as expiring healthcare subsidies and cuts to social programs, to gain political leverage later.
This scenario offers a political off-ramp for the party leadership, potentially satisfying the base’s desire to make a statement while mitigating immediate damage. The hope would be that by drawing attention to these critical issues, they can still benefit politically in the long run, even if the immediate outcome isn’t a complete victory.
Republicans Make Concessions
While Republicans currently appear to be in a strong position, there’s a possibility they miscalculate the public’s sentiment or overplay their hand. Historically, the party initiating a shutdown often bears the brunt of public criticism. If Republicans continue to push for deep cuts and reductions in government services, they might find themselves conceding to Democrats to avoid widespread public backlash. A concession on extending healthcare subsidies, for instance, could appeal to some Republicans who recognize the benefits for their own constituents and could neutralize a key Democratic talking point heading into future elections.
The Shutdown Stretches On (and Both Sides Lose)
The current political climate is marked by intense rhetoric and partisan animosity, with both sides engaging in sharp exchanges. The longest government shutdown in US history lasted 35 days, severely impacting air travel and government services. Should the current shutdown extend for a similar or longer period, the blame may fall equally on both parties, regardless of who initially triggered it. This prolonged stalemate could lead to widespread public dissatisfaction, ultimately hurting all incumbents and setting the stage for political disruption in future elections.