Tony Blair, in his recent guide for new leaders, advised focusing on one’s legacy while in power — a lesson he admitted overlooking during his decade as British Prime Minister. Now, he’s taking a pivotal role in President Trump’s latest Gaza peace initiative, a region that has haunted him since his controversial support for the Iraq War 22 years prior. This new challenge offers Blair an opportunity to redefine a legacy marred by Iraq and a largely unsuccessful period as a Middle East peace envoy after leaving office.
Success remains a distant prospect, however. Trump’s commitment to peacemaking is notoriously inconsistent, and critics fear Blair’s involvement, if perceived as a colonial-style intervention, could exacerbate tensions. Instead of fostering peace, he might just entangle himself in another seemingly impossible conflict.
Interestingly, much of Trump’s plan incorporates elements from Blair’s own 21-page proposal for Gaza, including a high-level transitional board where Blair will serve. While he had initially been considered for a leading role in this initiative, sources indicate that Trump ultimately decided to chair the board himself.
Following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Mr. Trump praised Blair as a ‘good man, very good man,’ though he remained silent on Blair’s specific responsibilities or his input into the peace plan. Should this plan somehow succeed — a considerable challenge given the deep-seated animosity between Israel and Hamas — Blair would be instrumental in its execution. This marks a notable shift for the 72-year-old former politician, who has spent his retirement building a successful consultancy, advising on everything from AI to global governance, yet continues to be a contentious figure regarding the Middle East.
Despite the risks, this role perfectly aligns with Blair’s long-standing statesmanlike aspirations. David M. Satterfield, a former US diplomat and special envoy for Gaza humanitarian issues (2023-2024), observed, ‘Tony’s been committed to this issue for a long time, constantly proposing ideas, even when met with resistance. He’s determined to keep pushing forward.’
This new venture recalls Blair’s controversial support for the Iraq War 23 years ago, a decision that has significantly shadowed his public life since leaving office. (An accompanying image shows two men in dark suits on a stage, a visual echo of past political moments.) Satterfield recounted a meeting with Blair in Israel in January 2024, during early discussions among diplomats about a potential interim authority for Gaza. He noted Blair’s frequent visits to Jerusalem and Arab capitals, leveraging extensive contacts developed during his seven years as envoy for the Quartet (a diplomatic group including the US, UN, EU, and Russia, focused on Israeli-Palestinian peace).
During the Biden presidency, Blair actively lobbied leaders in the United Arab Emirates regarding a post-conflict Gaza plan. Following the presidential election, his focus shifted from Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken to Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, who then helped shape the plan Trump unveiled. ‘He genuinely believes in the possibility of a resolution and has always remained deeply involved in this issue,’ stated Satterfield, now heading the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. Blair’s office chose not to comment on the new plan.
Few can match Blair’s track record in resolving seemingly intractable conflicts. His pivotal role in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which brought an end to decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, is often cited. Supporters believe his ability to earn the trust of both Irish republicans and unionists during that process could be crucial for a settlement between Israel and Hamas. Monica McWilliams, an academic and former politician involved in the Good Friday negotiations, noted, ‘Tony Blair understood that successful peace requires mutual concession, not unilateral demands.’ She highlighted the parallels between the challenges faced in Northern Ireland — like governance and militant disarmament — and those currently present in Gaza. However, McWilliams also expressed reservations, adding, ‘I frequently wondered how much Blair truly absorbed from Northern Ireland after his disastrous decision to invade Iraq.’
This skepticism stems from his past. (An image captures Mr. Blair with then-Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern after sealing the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, a testament to his peacemaking abilities in one context.) The shadow of the Iraq backlash has lingered over Blair’s post-premiership. Upon stepping down in 2007, he immediately took on the role of special envoy for the Quartet, aiming to mend the deep divisions between Israelis and Palestinians. From his base at the American Colony Hotel in East Jerusalem, Blair delved into complex issues, including advocating for the removal of Israeli checkpoints in the West Bank and fostering a stronger Palestinian economy.
Yet, his involvement in Iraq bred regional mistrust, and Palestinians largely viewed him as biased towards Israel. Consequently, the Quartet, rather than being a driving force for peace, often found itself on the sidelines of negotiations. Despite these challenges, Blair remains proud of his Middle East endeavors. At his London institute, he displays a signed photo with former Secretary of State John Kerry, acknowledging his contributions. By 2015, however, when he concluded his envoy role, his influence in the already stalled peace process had significantly waned.
Khaled Elgindy, a visiting scholar at Georgetown University and author of a critical 2012 study on the Quartet, noted, ‘The Palestinians, in essence, welcomed his departure.’ Elgindy questioned the current approach: ‘To now parachute in as a viceroy or high commissioner for what feels like a colonial project in Gaza? That simply won’t be well-received.’
This perspective is informed by historical precedents, including his earlier role as special envoy for the Quartet, a diplomatic group tasked with mediating Israeli-Palestinian peace. (An image shows a seated man with his hands raised before a microphone; the flags of the United States, Russia and the European Union can be seen behind him.) Analysts warn that Blair and Trump’s proposed interim authority for Gaza bears concerning resemblances to the Coalition Provisional Authority, the transitional government established by the United States in Iraq after Saddam Hussein’s fall. The Iraqi authority, widely seen as illegitimate by its people, failed to bring stability, leading to a brutal insurgency. It is largely remembered for its financial missteps and a profound disconnect from the populace, often likened to an arrogant colonial administration.
Blair’s own plan for a Gaza International Transitional Authority, as obtained by The New York Times, attempts to sidestep these pitfalls. It proposes a Palestinian executive authority responsible for essential services like health, education, and policing, and emphasizes coordination with the Palestinian Authority on the crucial matter of disarming militants.
On Monday, Blair publicly endorsed Trump’s plan, praising it as ‘bold and intelligent’ and stating that Trump’s decision to chair the ‘Board of Peace’ sends a ‘huge signal of support and confidence in the future of Gaza.’ However, Trump has indicated he won’t be involved in daily operations, leaving the substantial work to Blair. Blair’s institute already advises about 40 countries, including Saudi Arabia, and receives funding from figures like Silicon Valley billionaire Larry Ellison, a vocal supporter of Israel. Blair consistently asserts his commitment to the Palestinian cause. He recently shared with colleagues that he has seen Gaza as a potential model for a sovereign Palestinian state since 2005, following Israel’s withdrawal, when he hosted a London conference on the issue as prime minister.
The immense human cost of the conflict, exemplified by a recent image of Palestinians fleeing Gaza City, underscores the urgency and complexity of any peace efforts. Robert Danin, an American diplomat who worked for Mr. Blair at the Quartet and has been a longtime adviser, acknowledged Blair’s extensive experience in navigating governmental and bureaucratic systems. Yet, Danin expressed doubt about the sustained engagement of other key players, particularly the United States, in such a long-term undertaking. ‘Many parties will simply want to disengage,’ he remarked. ‘The agenda they’ve proposed is incredibly ambitious; its success will demand an enormous, sustained effort.’
Adam Rasgon contributed reporting from Jerusalem and Maggie Haberman from Washington.