President Trump unveiled an ambitious blueprint for Gaza’s future during a Monday news conference, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by his side. Both leaders expressed hope that this plan could finally bring an end to the devastating conflict with Hamas.
The proposal outlines an immediate cessation of hostilities and the release of all remaining hostages held in Gaza. Under the terms, Hamas would be required to disarm and relinquish any remaining authority over Gaza, making way for a transitional government.
However, it remains highly uncertain whether these demanding conditions will be acceptable to Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that has waged a relentless guerrilla war against Israel for two years. Hamas has consistently refused to surrender its weapons or dismantle its armed battalions.
Here’s a breakdown of what we know about this U.S.- and Israeli-backed plan for Gaza’s future.
Who’s behind it?
The Trump administration devised this plan, consulting with Tony Blair, the former British prime minister. In August, Mr. Blair attended a high-level meeting at the White House to discuss potential "day-after" scenarios for Gaza, working alongside Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, who has previously been involved in Middle East policy discussions.
Over the past week, both Israel and various Arab nations engaged in further discussions with American officials regarding the proposal before its formal announcement on Monday.
Credit: Doug Mills/The New York Times
What would happen first?
The initial phases of the plan are quite straightforward.
The war would conclude immediately upon both sides signing the agreement. This approach diverges from many earlier proposals, which typically sought a temporary truce first, followed by negotiations for a permanent cease-fire.
Within 72 hours of an agreement, Hamas would be required to release all remaining hostages from its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, including an estimated 20 living captives and the remains of about 25 others. In return, Israel would free approximately 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences for militant activities, along with about 1,700 Gazans detained during the conflict.
Israeli forces in Gaza would pull back to predetermined lines, establishing a buffer zone within the territory. Simultaneously, the international community would begin to significantly increase the flow of urgently needed aid into the Gaza Strip.
Beyond these initial steps, however, the complexities multiply.
How would Gaza be reshaped?
Mr. Trump’s plan aims to fundamentally transform the enclave, which Hamas has controlled since 2007. Yet, its ambitious objectives are likely to face considerable challenges, and many specifics on its implementation remain undisclosed.
Hamas’s governance in Gaza would cease, replaced by a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee,” as per the proposal. This committee would be supervised by a “Board of Peace,” chaired by Mr. Trump, with a significant role also assigned to Mr. Blair.
According to the White House, Hamas members who agree to “peaceful coexistence and to decommission their weapons” would be granted amnesty. Other Hamas fighters who wish to depart Gaza would be offered safe passage into exile.
The United States, in collaboration with its Arab allies, would work to establish an international force for “immediate deployment in Gaza.” This force would be responsible for training a Palestinian police force, intended to be “the long-term internal security solution” for the enclave.
However, many critical questions persist: Who will lead the Gaza governing committee? How will the new authorities manage militants unwilling to disarm? What will be the composition of this international force?
Another unresolved aspect is the duration of this transitional administration. While the framework allows for a future role for the Palestinian Authority, Hamas’s rival, this is contingent upon extensive reforms within the PA.
Daniel B. Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, described Mr. Trump’s plan as a “credible basis to end the war.” However, he also noted that many crucial elements “are not fully cooked.”
Credit: Amir Levy/Getty Images
Will Hamas agree to it?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already endorsed the proposal. The ball is now in Hamas’s court, with its negotiating team expected to meet Tuesday night in Qatar to discuss the terms.
Yet, analysts close to the group suggest that many aspects of this plan will be difficult for Hamas to accept.
Mr. Trump’s plan would effectively signal the end of Hamas’s nearly two-decade rule in Gaza, a significant setback. Moreover, Hamas leaders have consistently declared disarmament a non-negotiable “red line.”
Under the proposed framework, Israeli forces would maintain a presence in Gaza indefinitely, particularly within a border buffer zone. Hamas, however, has consistently demanded a complete Israeli withdrawal from the territory.
Analysts also believe that Hamas leaders fear losing all their negotiating leverage if they release the hostages within three days, as stipulated by the plan. This could potentially allow Israel to resume attacks or abandon the agreement without concern for the captives’ safety.
Nonetheless, Tamer Qarmout, a public policy professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, suggested that Hamas is seeking a “dignified exit” from the prolonged conflict.
“The entire region is now exerting pressure on Hamas and aligning itself with this initiative,” Mr. Qarmout added.