In Bihar’s Seemanchal region, comprising the districts of Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, and Katihar, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is actively seeking the support of minority voters. This region, with the state’s highest concentration of Muslim voters, presents a unique challenge and opportunity for Kishor’s campaign, which emphasizes governance over identity politics. The JSP’s emergence is scrutinizing whether the historically RJD-Congress leaning, minority-dominant population is ready to back a new, non-Muslim political entrant.
During the 2020 assembly elections, Seemanchal saw significant support for Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which secured five out of the 24 seats in the region. Kishanganj district has a Muslim population of nearly 70%, while Araria, Katihar, and Purnia have Muslim populations ranging from 40-45%.
Local entrepreneur Abu Zafar notes that Kishor has centered his campaign in Seemanchal, drawing large, curious crowds, particularly among the youth. Kishor’s message to Muslim voters is clear: prioritize development, education, and representation. The JSP’s candidate list includes a notable number of Muslim nominees, signaling an intent to provide direct representation rather than relying on alliances. While Kishor has inspired faith in his “inclusive local leadership” model, the ultimate translation into votes on November 11 remains uncertain.
The JSP faces a considerable challenge due to the deeply entrenched political loyalties in Seemanchal, where local leaders, clerics, and community figures often influence voting patterns. Traditional parties like the RJD, Congress, and AIMIM have long-established networks. Despite generating considerable attention, Kishor’s party is finding it difficult to build the organizational strength needed to convert this curiosity into concrete votes.
Mohammad Hafeez, a local shop owner, observes that JSP has created a buzz, especially in urban areas and among first-time voters. However, he adds, “In rural areas, loyalties remain intact. People vote where the local leaders tell them to.” Hafeez identifies Kishor’s main hurdle not as hostility, but hesitation. Many Muslim voters view JSP as a viable alternative but fear that voting for it could inadvertently benefit the BJP by splitting the anti-NDA vote, a critical factor in closely contested constituencies.
Independent candidate Parwez Alam predicts that if JSP secures even 10% of the Muslim vote in key constituencies like Araria and Kishanganj, it could significantly impact the INDIA bloc’s performance, potentially costing them seats. He emphasizes that this fragmentation of votes, even without JSP winning, could alter election arithmetic, particularly in Kishanganj where Muslims constitute a majority.
Alam also points out that for decades, these voters have supported secular parties to counter the BJP. The JSP’s platform, blending development rhetoric with technocratic candidates, could disrupt this long-standing consensus.
The JSP’s message is resonating with a new demographic of voters in Kishanganj, where discussions in markets and educational centers frequently focus on education, employment, and migration. Mohammad Jamal, a 25-year-old college student, voices a common sentiment: “We want a government that works for everyone. We have seen leaders talk about our votes, not our future.”
Abu Affan Farooque, a JSP nominee, believes Kishor can connect with educated, aspirational Muslims who feel underserved by both the RJD’s caste-based politics and the BJP’s majoritarianism. He is confident in building credibility within this group to succeed in Bihar’s first-past-the-post electoral system, noting that Kishor’s message appeals strongly to young voters.
Political analysts suggest that any significant gain of Muslim votes by Jan Suraaj could indirectly benefit the NDA. Mohammad Kareem, a political analyst based in Kishanganj, explains that a divided opposition vote in Seemanchal would make the NDA’s path easier in marginal seats. He recalls that many NDA victories in 2020 were by narrow margins, and a shift of a few thousand votes could change outcomes. For the NDA, which has limited direct appeal among Seemanchal’s Muslim population, a JSP surge could be a strategic advantage, weakening the anti-BJP vote without requiring concessions.
Currently, Seemanchal remains a mix of skepticism and curiosity. While Kishor’s rallies have attracted large crowds and generated thoughtful questions, the ultimate outcome hinges on whether this curiosity can be converted into committed votes. The electoral success of the JSP could significantly influence the dynamics between the INDIA bloc, built on Muslim loyalty, and the NDA, poised to capitalize on any opposition fragmentation.